Renewables can reach a share of 65% in global primary energy by 2050 under the greenest scenario in the BP report Energy Outlook 2022.
The report has three main scenarios - Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. The share of renewables in 2050 across the three ranges between 35% and 65%, up from roughly 10% in 2019, while fossil fuels share of 80% in 2019 global primary energy is melting to between 60% and 20% by 2050.
BP expects the share of electricity in final energy to climb from 20% in 2019 to at least 30% and up to 50% in 2050, depending on the scenario.
Under the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios, the installed wind and solar power generation capacity in the world will expand more than 15-fold by 2050 from 2019 levels, while the jump under the New Momentum scenario is nine-fold. This means wind and solar could surpass 20 TW of installed capacity by the middle of the century, or at least top 10 TW under New Momentum.
The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from wind and solar farms, including integration costs, drops by around 20%-25% and 40%-55%, respectively, by 2030. In the following two decades the pace of cost reductions is slower or non-existent because the cost reductions are offset by higher system balancing expenses.
In Energy Outlook 2022, the average rate of increase in installed wind and solar capacity in the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios is 600 GW-750 GW per year in the 2030s, and then 700 GW-750 GW in the 2040s. This is a significant acceleration in capacity additions.
Most of the solar and wind capacity will be used to supply electricity at the final point of use, but in Accelerated and Net Zero, green hydrogen production will be consuming around 20%-30% of that by 2050. Under these same scenarios, green hydrogen accounts for around 55% of low-carbon hydrogen, and its share rises to some 65% by 2050. Blue hydrogen is seen to almost fully cover the difference, but it is important to note that the Outlook has been largely prepared before Russia invaded Ukraine and it does not take into account the war’s impact on gas and other energy sources.
Source: Renewables Now